Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Calculator
Free Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Calculator. See where BTC sits on the logarithmic regression model with 9 price bands from Fire Sale to Maximum Bubble.
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
Enter the current BTC price to see which rainbow band it falls in and how it compares to the logarithmic regression model.
How to use Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Calculator
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Calculator overlays logarithmic regression bands on Bitcoin's price history to visualize long-term valuation zones. The model fits a curve to BTC's entire price history since 2010, then divides the area above and below the regression line into 9 color-coded bands, from deep blue ("Fire Sale") through green ("Accumulate") and yellow ("HODL") to red ("Maximum Bubble"). Enter today's BTC price to see which band the current price falls into.
The rainbow is a sentiment and valuation heuristic, not a prediction model. Historically, buying in the blue-green bands and selling in the orange-red bands has been profitable over multi-year horizons. Use the investment amount field to model how a purchase at today's band would perform if BTC moves to a higher band over time. The chart updates dynamically as you adjust the price.
Input guide and assumptions
Current BTC Price is auto-filled from live market data but can be overridden for scenario modeling (what if BTC drops to $60K or rallies to $120K?). The calculator instantly maps any price to its corresponding rainbow band and shows the percentage distance from the regression midline.
Investment Amount lets you model a hypothetical purchase. The tool shows the potential return if the price moves from the current band to higher bands (e.g., from "Accumulate" to "Is This a Bubble?"). Output includes: current band label, band boundaries, distance from regression center, and historical accuracy of the band as a buy/sell signal.
How to interpret results correctly
The hero output is the Current Band, one of nine colored zones from "Fire Sale" up to "Maximum Bubble" — set by where today's price sits versus the logarithmic model. Read it alongside the Deviation: a positive percentage means BTC trades above the model's fair value, a negative one means below. The band, not the deviation alone, is the takeaway: "Accumulate" and "BUY!" are cheap zones, "HODL!" is fair, and the orange-to-red bands flag froth.
The Model Price is the regression's fair-value estimate for today; Deviation from Model and the Price / Model Ratio just express how far above or below it you are (a 1.50x ratio means price is 50% over model). BTC at Current Price and BTC at Model Price show how much Bitcoin your investment would buy at each level, and Days Since Genesis is the model's input clock counting from January 3, 2009. Treat all of it as a valuation lens, not a price target.
Practical scenarios and planning workflow
The core use is a quick gut-check on whether Bitcoin looks cheap or stretched right now. Enter the live price, glance at the Current Band, and let the color steer your bias, green bands invite accumulation, red ones invite caution. Pair this with a steady cost-averaging plan in the <a href="/dca-calculator/">DCA calculator</a>: many holders buy more aggressively when the rainbow sits in "Still Cheap" or lower and trim when it climbs into the warning bands.
The second workflow is scenario testing future prices. Type $50,000 or $150,000 into the price field and watch which band that hypothetical level falls into and how far it deviates from model, the built-in "BTC at $50K" and "BTC at $150K" presets do exactly this. It pairs well with the <a href="/halving-calculator/">halving calculator</a> for timing context and the <a href="/what-if/">what-if calculator</a> to convert a target band into a concrete portfolio outcome.
Risk and execution checklist
- Before acting on a band: 1) Enter a real, current BTC price, since the band shifts the moment price moves. 2) Note the Deviation from Model, a +120% reading is a very different signal than +5%. 3) Check which band sits directly above and below yours in the Rainbow Bands table so you know the price levels that would flip your zone. 4) Remember the model drifts upward daily as Days Since Genesis grows, so a level that is "HODL!" today may be "Still Cheap" months later.
- When using it to size entries: decide in advance which bands trigger buys and which trigger trims, then stick to those rules instead of reacting emotionally. Treat the "Sell. Seriously." and "Maximum Bubble" zones as risk-reduction triggers, not guaranteed tops. Convert any intended buy into actual coin quantity with the <a href="/converter/">crypto converter</a>, and run the realized gain through the <a href="/profit-calculator/">profit calculator</a> once you exit.
Common mistakes to avoid
- The biggest mistake is treating the rainbow as a forecast. The bands are a backward-looking logarithmic fit, not a prediction, the calculator's own disclaimer says it cannot predict the future. Price has historically spent long stretches in any single band, so a "BUY!" reading is not a promise of a bottom and a "Maximum Bubble" reading is not a guaranteed top. The model also flattens over time as more data accrues, so old screenshots overstate today's bands.
- The second error is over-trusting the exact Model Price figure. It comes from a fixed regression (log10 price = 5.84 × log10 days − 17.01) calibrated on history; small coefficient choices shift the bands meaningfully, and this is one popular version, not an official standard. Don't anchor a full buy or sell to a single band crossing, and never confuse the colorful "Sell. Seriously." label for personalized advice, it is a meme-styled heuristic, nothing more.
Performance benchmarks and expectation ranges
As a rough orientation: the "HODL!" fair band sits around 0.85x–1.1x the model price, "Still Cheap" and "Accumulate" run roughly 0.4x–0.85x, and "BUY!"/"Fire Sale" are below about 0.4x of model. On the hot side, "FOMO Intensifies" through "Maximum Bubble" stretch from about 1.5x to above 3x model. Historically, prices above 2x model (the "Sell" zones) have clustered near cycle peaks, while sub-0.5x readings clustered near deep bear-market lows.
Don't expect the model price to match any single forecast, it is a slowly rising line, currently in the tens of thousands of dollars and climbing as Days Since Genesis increases. Deviations of ±20–40% from model are routine and unremarkable; readings beyond +150% or below −60% are historically rare and tend to mark extremes. For an investing-horizon frame rather than a single snapshot, layer it against an accumulation plan in the <a href="/dca-calculator/">DCA calculator</a>.
Execution templates you can reuse
A repeatable workflow: 1) Pull the live BTC price and type it into the Current BTC Price field. 2) Record the Current Band and the Deviation from Model. 3) Compare against your last reading to see if you've moved toward a hotter or cooler band. 4) Apply your pre-set rule, accumulate in cool bands, hold in fair ones, de-risk in hot ones. 5) Log the band, price, and date so you can review whether your band-based decisions actually helped.
For planning, run the price field through your target levels rather than just today's price: enter the price you'd be tempted to sell at and confirm which band it lands in before you commit to a plan. Set the investment amount to your real intended size so BTC at Current Price reflects the coins you'd actually receive, then size the position with the <a href="/what-if/">what-if calculator</a> to see the outcome of that exact band-based entry.
Data hygiene and model maintenance
Keep the price input fresh, the band and deviation are only meaningful against the live market, and a stale price can show the wrong zone entirely. The model itself advances each day as Days Since Genesis increases, so re-run the calculator rather than trusting an older reading or screenshot; a band that was accurate last quarter may have shifted as the regression line crept upward and as price moved.
Be transparent with yourself about the model's assumptions: it is one specific logarithmic-regression variant with fixed coefficients, not a consensus tool, and different rainbow charts draw the bands at slightly different multiples. When you compare bands over time, hold the methodology constant, don't mix this calculator's output with a different chart's bands. Periodically sanity-check the live price you enter against a reliable exchange feed before logging any decision.
Final validation before capital deployment
To sanity-check the numbers, verify the Price / Model Ratio against the deviation: a ratio of 1.50x should pair with a +50% Deviation from Model, and 0.80x with −20%, because deviation is simply (price − model) ÷ model × 100. Then confirm the Current Band matches that ratio against the Rainbow Bands table, a 1.50x ratio should land you right at the "Is This a Bubble?" / "FOMO Intensifies" boundary, since bands are defined as fixed multiples of model price.
Cross-check the Model Price using the underlying formula: log10(modelPrice) = 5.84 × log10(daysSinceGenesis) − 17.01, with days counted from January 3, 2009. The BTC at Current Price and BTC at Model Price rows are just your investment divided by each price, so a $10,000 input at a $77,300 price should read about 0.129 BTC. If those simple divisions don't tie out, your investment or price input is wrong, not the model.
Authoritative sources
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart?
A logarithmic regression model with colored bands showing BTC valuation zones - from "Fire Sale" (deep value) to "Maximum Bubble Territory". Created by Trolololo (2014), it has held within bands for 10+ years until late 2024 when BTC traded above the rainbow during the ETF boom.
What rainbow band signals "buy"?
Bottom 3 bands (Fire Sale Blue, Buy Cyan, Accumulate Green) historically marked all major bottoms: $200 (2015), $3.2k (2018), $16k (2022). Buying in these zones returned 5-20x within 2-3 years. Top 2 bands (Sell Orange, Bubble Red) marked all cycle peaks.
Has the Rainbow Chart been accurate?
For 2010-2023, every cycle top hit Bubble Territory (Red); every bottom touched Fire Sale (Blue). However, the model lagged in 2024 when BTC briefly went above the chart at $100k+ - some say the rainbow needs recalibration as BTC matures and growth slows.
How is the Rainbow Chart calculated?
It fits a logarithmic regression: price = 10^(2.66 × log10(days since genesis) - 17.9). Bands are offset above/below this midline at fixed multipliers (0.5x, 1x, 1.5x, etc.). LookIntoBitcoin and Blockchain Center publish live charts.
Should I trade based on Rainbow Chart alone?
No - it's a long-term valuation tool, not a trading signal. It can't predict timing within bands (BTC sat in green for 2 years in 2018-2020). Combine with RSI, MVRV, and macro to time entries within the value zones.
Is there a Rainbow Chart for ETH or other assets?
Yes - LookIntoBitcoin has ETH Rainbow (less reliable since ETH only has 9 years of data vs BTC's 16). SOL and other altcoins have unofficial rainbows but lack statistical robustness. Rainbow models work best on assets with 10+ year price history.
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